College football Week 12 picks against the spread: Stewart Mandels predictions -

With three weeks left, I’ve got no shot at the CFP, but I’m furiously trying to get to a better bowl. Right now I’m at .500, probably playing on a Thursday afternoon before Christmas. I need a strong finish to the season to at least make it to the PopTarts Bowl.

Last week: 5-6 against the spread.
Season: 60-59-2.

(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise listed.)

No. 3 Michigan (-19.5) at Maryland, Noon (Fox)

It might be better for Michigan at this point if Jim Harbaugh remains suspended, so the Wolverines will come out and play angry again. Not that they’ll need any extra help in this one. The 6-4 Terps defense is so bad, it gave up 51 points to the same Penn State team that could barely complete a pass against Ohio State and Michigan.

Michigan 52, Maryland 14
The pick: Michigan -19.5

No. 10 Louisville at Miami (-1), Noon (ABC)

Miami lost freshman QB Emory Williams to a season-ending injury. We’ll see how veteran Tyler Van Dyke responds after being benched for a week. Louisville has had a great season but has strangely managed to play just three true road games — two close wins and a puzzling blowout loss at 2-8 Pitt. I see the 9-1 Cardinals stumbling here.

Miami 23, Louisville 20
The pick: Miami -1

No. 22 Utah at No. 17 Arizona (-1), 2:30 p.m., (Pac-12 Network)

For the first half of the season it looked like this was going to be another vintage Utah defense, but Oregon came into Salt Lake and walloped the Utes, then Washington last week did whatever it wanted (at least in the first half). Arizona QB Noah Fifita was sensational in home wins over Oregon State and UCLA. He and his receivers can do some damage.

Arizona 27, Utah 24
The pick: Arizona -1

No. 1 Georgia (-10.5) at No. 18 Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

The Vols still carry a top-20 ranking, but their best win has come against … Kentucky? Texas A&M? They haven’t done much to demonstrate that they can hang with the No. 1 team in the country. Their best hope is Georgia comes in flat after back-to-back Top 25 home wins, but even if they do, Tennessee might not have the offense to take advantage.

Georgia 27, Tennessee 10
The pick: Georgia -10.5

No. 20 North Carolina at Clemson (-7), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Clemson’s long-struggling offense has definitely inspired more confidence the last couple weeks with the Tigers’ 31-23 upset of Notre Dame and 42-21 rout of Georgia Tech. Clemson has leaned on speedy RB Phil Mafah more, and he’s made a big impact. But I expect Drake Maye and the Tar Heels will be in this one until the end.

Clemson 31, North Carolina 27
The pick: North Carolina +7

UNLV at Air Force (-3), 3:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)

It’s a battle for first place in the MWC between two 8-2 squads. Since starting 8-0, the Falcons have suffered lopsided losses to 4-6 Army and 4-7 Hawaii, whereas the Rebels trounced New Mexico 56-14 and Wyoming 34-14 over the last two weeks. Air Force’s fifth-ranked defense could slow down UNLV’s hot offense, but I still like the Rebels.

UNLV 24, Air Force 20
The pick: UNLV +3

No. 21 Kansas State (-8.5) at No. 25 Kansas, 7 p.m. (FS1)

Two weeks removed from knocking off Oklahoma, the Jayhawks suffered a 16-13 home loss last week to mediocre Texas Tech in which QB Jason Bean got hurt early. He’s expected to return this week. But K-State is playing at a higher level, its only setback in its last five games coming in overtime at Texas. The ‘Cats should handle their rivals.

Kansas State 34, Kansas 24
The pick: Kansas State -8.5

Florida at No. 9 Missouri (-11.5), 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

The Tigers are finally getting the respect they deserve after giving Georgia a scare in Athens, then thumping Tennessee the following week. Now, QB Brady Cook, RB Cody Schrader and WR Luther Burden get to face a Florida defense that just allowed a program-record 701 yards to LSU and is on its heels as the Gators must turn around and play another primetime SEC road game.

Missouri 42, Florida 24
The pick: Missouri -11.5

No. 5 Washington at No. 11 Oregon State (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)

Never before have five Power 5 teams made it to 10-0. That list drops by one this week. Michael Penix and Co. remain potent on offense, but their defense ranks 102nd nationally in opposing third-down conversions (42.2 percent). RB Damien Martinez and the Beavers are well-suited to take advantage in front of a charged Reser Stadium.

Oregon State 34, Washington 28
The pick: Oregon State -2.5

No. 7 Texas (-7.5) at Iowa State, 8 p.m. (Fox)

Why stop there with the upsets? Much like Washington, Texas has been playing with fire lately, nearly blowing three 20-point leads in four weeks. The 6-4 Cylones have already well exceeded expectations, given their heavy preseason roster losses due to the statewide gambling scandal, and a top-10 upset at home would be the cherry on top.

Iowa State 22, Texas 20
The pick: Iowa State +7.5

Mandel’s Upset Special
Duke (-4) at Virginia, 3 p.m. (The CW)

You wouldn’t know it from their 2-8 record, but the Cavaliers have gotten better since starting 0-5. They won at North Carolina, took Miami to overtime and last week led No. 10 Louisville in the fourth quarter — all on the road. Now they’re back home and getting Duke at a good spot, coming off a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to rival UNC.

Virginia 23, Duke 20
The pick: Virginia +4

(Top photo: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)

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